Sunday, March 15, 2015

Will Oil Prices Drop Affect the Future of Renewable Energy in Indonesia?



The oil prices have dropped to below $50 per barrel. Many people contend that this could scare off investment in renewable energy as it needs huge budget to deploy renewable energy project. With a very low oil prices, many people believe that renewable energy projects will experience a delay thus it could give a bad impact for renewables future. However, many experts argue that it is unlikely to impact the future of renewable energy in Indonesia. There are several reasons for it such as government support and the price of renewable energy is falling too.
Firstly, the renewable energy is fully supported by the government of Republic of Indonesia through long-term PPA (Power-Purchase Agreement) contracts. Through the PPA, government is committed to buy electricity generated from renewables in certain fixed prices. The prices have already determined long before and will be used for 20-30 years ahead. Thus any sudden hit like the plummet of oil prices will not giving a significant impact to renewable energy investment in the long run. In addition, the government of Indonesia has committed, by 2025, Indonesia aims to install 6.7 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity by increasing the proportion of renewables from 7 percent to 15 percent of total energy production.[1]
Secondly, many prices of renewable energy projects have already been competitive. Solar and wind power are one of those examples. According to Pavel Molchanov, a senior research analyst at Raymond James Financial, solar can compete effectively with diesel-fired generation.[2] In addition, the total LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) for onshore wind is cheaper than that of conventional coal as well as natural gas-fired plants with carbon capture and storage.[3] In Indonesia itself, some renewable sources have abundant resource potential such as hydropower, geothermal, and biomass.
The only problem for renewable energy in Indonesia is not the price of oil or gas or coal, but government will and regulatory measures. It often struggles to implement policy initiatives, which causes bottle-necks for innovative technologies like renewable energy. If government sticks with their commitment to increase the proportion of renewable energy, the plunge of oil prices will not hurt the future of renewable energy.


[1] US. Department of Commerce, “Renewable Energy Market Assessment Report: Indonesia” Manufacturing and Service Competitiveness Report, May 2010.
[2] Kevin Smead, “How Could Falling Oil Prices Affect Renewable Energy Growth?” accessed from http://www.energydigital.com/renewables/3722/How-Could-Falling-Oil-Prices-Affect-Renewable-Energy-Growth
[3] Ibid.

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